上半年中國房地產市場逐步平穩恢復

　　2020年上半年，中國房地產(chan)市場(chang)在經(jing)歷了(le)1—2月(yue)份的劇烈下降(jiang)后，持續保持平穩(wen)恢(hui)復態(tai)勢。總(zong)體上，市場(chang)恢(hui)復基本符合預期。預計1—6月(yue)份，全(quan)國商(shang)品房銷(xiao)售(shou)面積同比增(zeng)長(chang)-7%，商(shang)品房價格同比增(zeng)長(chang)2%左(zuo)右，新開(kai)工(gong)面積同比增(zeng)長(chang)-6%左(zuo)右，房地產(chan)開(kai)發投資將實(shi)現正增(zeng)長(chang)，而(er)1—5月(yue)份相關數據分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)-12.3%、1.7%、-12.8%、-0.3%。

　　受(shou)疫情沖擊影響，今年1—2月(yue)(yue)份，除房(fang)價外房(fang)地(di)產相關各(ge)項(xiang)指標(biao)均(jun)呈(cheng)大幅下(xia)降。其(qi)中，商品(pin)(pin)房(fang)銷售面(mian)積(ji)(ji)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)-39.9%，新開工面(mian)積(ji)(ji)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)-44.9%，開發(fa)投(tou)資(zi)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)-16.3%，商品(pin)(pin)房(fang)價格同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.3%，增(zeng)(zeng)幅明顯(xian)低于去年同(tong)期(qi)。此后樓市總體保持邊際(ji)遞減(jian)式穩步恢復。1—3月(yue)(yue)份和1—4月(yue)(yue)份，商品(pin)(pin)房(fang)銷售面(mian)積(ji)(ji)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)-26.3%和-19.3%，房(fang)地(di)產開發(fa)投(tou)資(zi)分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)-7.7%和-3.3%，商品(pin)(pin)房(fang)價格分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)1.2%和0.7%，增(zeng)(zeng)幅明顯(xian)低于去年同(tong)期(qi)。

　　空間上，城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)房(fang)價分(fen)(fen)(fen)化(hua)(hua)出(chu)現新(xin)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)。從開發投(tou)資和(he)銷售看，中部(bu)地區下滑最(zui)(zui)為嚴(yan)重，恢(hui)復最(zui)(zui)慢，東北下滑一般但恢(hui)復較(jiao)慢；從城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)房(fang)價變(bian)化(hua)(hua)看，分(fen)(fen)(fen)化(hua)(hua)出(chu)現新(xin)情況。多個來源渠道的(de)數(shu)據顯示：2020年(nian)5月(yue)，一線城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)房(fang)價上漲較(jiao)快，二線城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)房(fang)價穩步上漲，三(san)線城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)相對平穩，四線城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)略有回調，表明不(bu)同層級城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)樓市(shi)(shi)持續分(fen)(fen)(fen)化(hua)(hua)。此外，各線城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)均出(chu)現“漲平跌”的(de)分(fen)(fen)(fen)化(hua)(hua)，表明房(fang)地產(chan)市(shi)(shi)場從一二三(san)四線城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)間的(de)分(fen)(fen)(fen)化(hua)(hua)轉(zhuan)向(xiang)都市(shi)(shi)圈和(he)城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)群之(zhi)間及與非都市(shi)(shi)圈和(he)城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)群的(de)分(fen)(fen)(fen)化(hua)(hua)。

　　疫情沖(chong)擊、結構性潛力(li)與(yu)政(zheng)策定(ding)力(li)決(jue)定(ding)樓(lou)市未來(lai)走勢。當前結構性潛力(li)依然存(cun)在，加(jia)上(shang)疫情得到有(you)效(xiao)控制，決(jue)定(ding)綜合預期穩定(ding)向(xiang)好。房(fang)地(di)(di)產調控政(zheng)策不變，避險(xian)(xian)需(xu)求(qiu)增加(jia)，決(jue)定(ding)多方主體仍有(you)推進市場(chang)逐步(bu)恢復(fu)的(de)動力(li)。監(jian)管持續從嚴，但(dan)寬松(song)的(de)貨幣環(huan)境使資(zi)金仍有(you)可(ke)能向(xiang)房(fang)地(di)(di)產市場(chang)外溢，表(biao)現(xian)為開發企業(ye)資(zi)金來(lai)源增長恢復(fu)遠高于開發投資(zi)增長。剛性需(xu)求(qiu)受到一(yi)定(ding)影響，但(dan)改善性需(xu)求(qiu)尤其是避險(xian)(xian)需(xu)求(qiu)增加(jia)，表(biao)現(xian)為抵押貸款較快(kuai)恢復(fu)。此(ci)外，各地(di)(di)政(zheng)府也(ye)加(jia)大土(tu)地(di)(di)拍賣力(li)度，減弱(ruo)行政(zheng)調控力(li)度，多措(cuo)并舉救助相(xiang)關企業(ye)。在上(shang)述合力(li)下，房(fang)地(di)(di)產開發企業(ye)資(zi)金壓力(li)得以緩解，銷售量(liang)價齊升，投資(zi)、開工也(ye)加(jia)快(kuai)恢復(fu)。

　　兩個(ge)規律與三(san)個(ge)因素影響(xiang)樓市(shi)空間(jian)新分(fen)(fen)(fen)化(hua)(hua)：兩個(ge)規律指城(cheng)市(shi)“異(yi)(yi)速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)”和金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)“嫌貧愛富”。隨著城(cheng)市(shi)人口規模增(zeng)長(chang)，房(fang)價會出現異(yi)(yi)速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)，金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)機構更加偏(pian)(pian)好(hao)(hao)將資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)借給償還風險小的富者(zhe)而(er)(er)不是風險大(da)的貧者(zhe)。三(san)個(ge)因素包(bao)括：經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)基本面、土地(di)(di)供(gong)給和金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)杠桿。相(xiang)對(dui)而(er)(er)言(yan)，一二線城(cheng)市(shi)、中心城(cheng)市(shi)、大(da)都市(shi)圈和城(cheng)市(shi)群公共產品好(hao)(hao)、經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)潛力(li)大(da)、人口流入多(duo)、但是土地(di)(di)供(gong)給相(xiang)對(dui)偏(pian)(pian)緊，相(xiang)對(dui)寬松的貨幣環境(jing)導致部(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)在城(cheng)市(shi)之間(jian)流動，加上(shang)炒(chao)房(fang)觀念仍在，決(jue)定城(cheng)市(shi)房(fang)價分(fen)(fen)(fen)化(hua)(hua)呈現新變化(hua)(hua)。

　　下半年房地產市場走勢分析與判斷

　　當前在沒有重大(da)政策轉向和(he)新的外部沖擊的情況下，預計下半年中國(guo)房(fang)地產市場將延續平(ping)穩恢復和(he)增長的態勢。

　　第一，年度(du)有望恢(hui)復平穩。總(zong)體上看(kan)(kan)，預計(ji)全年商(shang)(shang)品房(fang)價格同(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)5%左(zuo)右，商(shang)(shang)品房(fang)銷售(shou)面積同(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)-5%左(zuo)右，房(fang)地產開發(fa)投資同(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)3%至7%。從時間上看(kan)(kan)，將呈現逐月邊際遞減性恢(hui)復態(tai)勢。從空間上看(kan)(kan)，各(ge)地恢(hui)復程度(du)不同(tong)，分化(hua)持續加劇(ju)。中心城(cheng)市、都市圈和城(cheng)市群復蘇(su)較好甚(shen)(shen)至可能(neng)出現過熱，其他城(cheng)市復蘇(su)較慢甚(shen)(shen)至可能(neng)陷入衰退(tui)。

　　第二，潛在隱(yin)憂值得關注。首(shou)先，地(di)(di)價(jia)(jia)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)快速上漲的苗頭(tou)。1—5月份(fen)全(quan)國土(tu)地(di)(di)成交(jiao)量同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)雖只有-8%，但成交(jiao)價(jia)(jia)款(kuan)卻增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)7.1%，依此推算(suan)地(di)(di)價(jia)(jia)上漲高達(da)15.1%，且一(yi)些(xie)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)“地(di)(di)王”又現(xian)。因(yin)此，須預防(fang)類似2015年至2016年那(nei)輪“地(di)(di)王”帶動房(fang)價(jia)(jia)輪番上漲并(bing)不(bu)斷擴(kuo)散的局部(bu)過(guo)熱再(zai)度(du)上演(yan)；其次，個人按揭貸款(kuan)與定金及預收(shou)款(kuan)同比(bi)恢復幅(fu)度(du)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)差(cha)異。此前兩項指標(biao)變動幾乎同步，但1—5月份(fen)前者同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)-0.9%，后(hou)者增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)-13%，這(zhe)反映投(tou)資需(xu)求(qiu)占(zhan)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)和(he)(he)(he)杠桿(gan)購房(fang)比(bi)例擴(kuo)大(da)(da)。另外，不(bu)少(shao)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)房(fang)租下降(jiang)(jiang)，房(fang)價(jia)(jia)上漲。一(yi)些(xie)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)利(li)用多種途徑(jing)融資炒房(fang)現(xian)象；再(zai)次，一(yi)些(xie)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)樓市(shi)(shi)(shi)面臨過(guo)熱風險(xian)(xian)。由(you)于房(fang)地(di)(di)產(chan)長(chang)效機制尚(shang)未(wei)完全(quan)建立(li)，市(shi)(shi)(shi)場各方仍有炒作沖動，加(jia)(jia)上前述(shu)規律支配，一(yi)些(xie)熱點(dian)大(da)(da)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)中心區、都市(shi)(shi)(shi)圈和(he)(he)(he)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)群樓市(shi)(shi)(shi)面臨過(guo)熱風險(xian)(xian)；最后(hou)，一(yi)些(xie)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)存(cun)在房(fang)屋空置和(he)(he)(he)庫存(cun)加(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)的風險(xian)(xian)。一(yi)些(xie)非(fei)熱點(dian)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)、非(fei)都市(shi)(shi)(shi)圈和(he)(he)(he)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)群中小城市(shi)(shi)(shi)，由(you)于不(bu)在調(diao)控視線范(fan)圍(wei)內(nei)，過(guo)去兩年出(chu)(chu)現(xian)樓市(shi)(shi)(shi)過(guo)熱。在當前疫情沖擊、經濟增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速放緩(huan)、需(xu)求(qiu)下降(jiang)(jiang)的情況下，房(fang)屋空置和(he)(he)(he)庫存(cun)加(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)風險(xian)(xian)開始暴(bao)露。

　　第三，起落風(feng)(feng)險仍須警惕。雖(sui)然(ran)目前房(fang)地產市(shi)(shi)場恢(hui)復平(ping)穩，風(feng)(feng)險總體可控，但是一些風(feng)(feng)險因素仍須高(gao)(gao)度警惕。首先，樓(lou)市(shi)(shi)總體風(feng)(feng)險依然(ran)存在(zai)(zai)。課(ke)題組(zu)測算：2019年全(quan)(quan)國(guo)城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)房(fang)價收入比平(ping)均高(gao)(gao)達1∶9.1。西南財(cai)大(da)課(ke)題組(zu)測算：2017年全(quan)(quan)國(guo)城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)空置率(lv)高(gao)(gao)達21.4%。2018年居民家庭(ting)債(zhai)務收入比增至86.9%，2019年174家房(fang)企加權(quan)平(ping)均凈負債(zhai)率(lv)達到(dao)91.37%。這(zhe)些都明顯高(gao)(gao)出合(he)理區(qu)間；其(qi)次，宏觀經(jing)濟形勢面臨不確(que)定性。國(guo)外疫情(qing)、國(guo)際經(jing)濟和(he)(he)國(guo)際關系存在(zai)(zai)進一步惡(e)化的(de)風(feng)(feng)險，如果情(qing)況持續惡(e)化或再有新的(de)沖擊，將(jiang)引起居民創業(ye)、就業(ye)和(he)(he)收入持續惡(e)化，或將(jiang)導(dao)致(zhi)住(zhu)房(fang)剛性和(he)(he)改(gai)善(shan)型(xing)需求大(da)幅下(xia)降(jiang)；最(zui)后，樓(lou)市(shi)(shi)預(yu)期(qi)復雜敏感多變。雖(sui)然(ran)目前樓(lou)市(shi)(shi)總體穩定向好，在(zai)(zai)風(feng)(feng)險較大(da)情(qing)況下(xia)，外部(bu)環境(jing)及樓(lou)市(shi)(shi)波(bo)(bo)動(dong)極(ji)易引發(fa)預(yu)期(qi)逆轉。以上三點決定超過一定區(qu)間的(de)沖擊和(he)(he)變化會(hui)引起市(shi)(shi)場劇(ju)烈波(bo)(bo)動(dong)。

　　完善房地產長效機制的對策建議

　　房(fang)地(di)產(chan)市(shi)(shi)場未來走(zou)向(xiang)取決于環(huan)境變化和政策應對。基于房(fang)地(di)產(chan)的重(zhong)要性及樓市(shi)(shi)內(nei)外環(huan)境變化，應將穩住房(fang)地(di)產(chan)市(shi)(shi)場作為(wei)宏觀經(jing)濟的重(zhong)要目標，將確(que)保房(fang)地(di)產(chan)市(shi)(shi)場穩定即平穩恢(hui)復和增長作為(wei)房(fang)地(di)產(chan)市(shi)(shi)場調控(kong)的目標。為(wei)此，提出以下建議：

　　第一，保持(chi)調控(kong)定力。促進市場(chang)平(ping)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)恢復和(he)增長。堅(jian)持(chi)“房(fang)住(zhu)不炒”的(de)定位、“穩(wen)(wen)(wen)房(fang)價、穩(wen)(wen)(wen)地價、穩(wen)(wen)(wen)預期”的(de)目標、“因城施策”的(de)原則，保持(chi)房(fang)地產調控(kong)政(zheng)(zheng)策的(de)連(lian)續性、一致(zhi)性和(he)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定性。對于個別(bie)城市樓市超出(chu)合理區(qu)間，國(guo)家和(he)相關省市的(de)監管部門應根據監測(ce)和(he)預警級別(bie)對其(qi)啟動約談(tan)、問(wen)責和(he)完善調控(kong)政(zheng)(zheng)策措施。

　　第(di)二，釋放市(shi)(shi)場潛(qian)力(li)。在(zai)持久(jiu)防疫、穩住(zhu)(zhu)預期、做好預案的(de)(de)基礎(chu)上，著力(li)釋放結(jie)構性(xing)(xing)潛(qian)力(li)，穩中(zhong)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)進(jin)。首先，釋放空間潛(qian)力(li)。支(zhi)持在(zai)中(zhong)心(xin)城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)郊區、大(da)都市(shi)(shi)圈(quan)周(zhou)邊和城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)群內的(de)(de)中(zhong)小城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)住(zhu)(zhu)房(fang)開發，加(jia)大(da)資金(jin)、土(tu)地(di)供應，這也(ye)有利于房(fang)價下降。同(tong)時加(jia)大(da)基礎(chu)設(she)施(shi)向(xiang)(xiang)周(zhou)邊延(yan)伸(shen)，加(jia)大(da)優質(zhi)公(gong)共服務向(xiang)(xiang)周(zhou)邊擴散；其次(ci)，釋放業態潛(qian)力(li)。加(jia)快老(lao)城(cheng)更新、舊房(fang)改造及(ji)配套(tao)基礎(chu)設(she)施(shi)建設(she)投資；再(zai)次(ci)，釋放需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)潛(qian)力(li)。在(zai)抑(yi)制炒房(fang)的(de)(de)同(tong)時，將改善性(xing)(xing)住(zhu)(zhu)房(fang)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)作為(wei)重點以帶動剛性(xing)(xing)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)。結(jie)合新型城(cheng)鎮化(hua)，實施(shi)“新市(shi)(shi)民安居工程”，加(jia)大(da)新市(shi)(shi)民的(de)(de)保障性(xing)(xing)租購住(zhu)(zhu)房(fang)建設(she)力(li)度。

　　第三(san)，完(wan)善(shan)(shan)長效機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。一是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)區(qu)別政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)屬(shu)性，完(wan)善(shan)(shan)“一城一策(ce)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)調(diao)控(kong)機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。繼續堅(jian)(jian)持“房(fang)(fang)住(zhu)不(bu)(bu)炒(chao)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)定(ding)位、“三(san)穩”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)目標(biao)(biao)和“不(bu)(bu)刺激(ji)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)原則全國(guo)統(tong)一不(bu)(bu)變(bian)；堅(jian)(jian)持監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)以(yi)及普適(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)全國(guo)統(tong)一或不(bu)(bu)變(bian)；具體(ti)(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)房(fang)(fang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)產行政(zheng)(zheng)、金(jin)(jin)(jin)融、土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、財稅政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)允許(xu)“因時(shi)(shi)因地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)”而定(ding)；實(shi)現總(zong)體(ti)(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)以(yi)靜制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)動(dong)與(yu)具體(ti)(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)以(yi)變(bian)應(ying)(ying)(ying)變(bian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結合。二(er)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)實(shi)行全面覆蓋(gai)(gai)，構建雙(shuang)(shuang)向用力的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)聯動(dong)機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。全面覆蓋(gai)(gai)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)：要將全國(guo)所(suo)有城市(shi)(shi)(shi)納入(ru)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)測(ce)和監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)范圍，力避過(guo)去(qu)只(zhi)管(guan)(guan)漲價(jia)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)弊端(duan)，將人口(kou)、住(zhu)房(fang)(fang)、土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、金(jin)(jin)(jin)融、輿情等重要指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)都納入(ru)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)測(ce)和監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)范圍，將督察擴展(zhan)到前期(qi)規劃(hua)、計劃(hua)、市(shi)(shi)(shi)場預(yu)期(qi)，尤其做好(hao)應(ying)(ying)(ying)急預(yu)案準備。雙(shuang)(shuang)向聯動(dong)調(diao)控(kong)：在增加(jia)人口(kou)流(liu)入(ru)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中心城市(shi)(shi)(shi)、大(da)都市(shi)(shi)(shi)圈和城市(shi)(shi)(shi)群的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、資金(jin)(jin)(jin)和住(zhu)房(fang)(fang)供給(gei)(gei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)同(tong)時(shi)(shi)，減少人口(kou)收(shou)縮地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)上述(shu)(shu)供給(gei)(gei)，防止大(da)起大(da)落。三(san)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)區(qu)別政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)類別，完(wan)善(shan)(shan)“管(guan)(guan)活放(fang)治”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)責任(ren)(ren)機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。建立全國(guo)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)測(ce)預(yu)警體(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)。整合全國(guo)各(ge)級政(zheng)(zheng)府的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)房(fang)(fang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)產相關主(zhu)管(guan)(guan)部門(men)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)體(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)。明(ming)確(que)統(tong)管(guan)(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內容：國(guo)家和省市(shi)(shi)(shi)應(ying)(ying)(ying)將房(fang)(fang)價(jia)、商品房(fang)(fang)存銷比(bi)、空置率，土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)格(ge)、供應(ying)(ying)(ying)量(liang)、閑置率，房(fang)(fang)貸規模及占比(bi)等納入(ru)到監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)測(ce)、監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)體(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)當中，劃(hua)定(ding)各(ge)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)允許(xu)區(qu)間(jian)、紅(hong)(hong)線(xian)和底(di)線(xian)。明(ming)確(que)下(xia)放(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)權力：將行政(zheng)(zheng)性規定(ding)、土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)審批、利率、首付比(bi)確(que)定(ding)，房(fang)(fang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)產稅率確(que)定(ding)等自(zi)主(zhu)決(jue)(jue)策(ce)，財稅政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)交由(you)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)方自(zi)主(zhu)決(jue)(jue)策(ce)，同(tong)時(shi)(shi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)決(jue)(jue)策(ce)規則和裁量(liang)區(qu)間(jian)。完(wan)善(shan)(shan)督導機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)：針(zhen)對(dui)(dui)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)內容，建立并實(shi)施實(shi)時(shi)(shi)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)測(ce)預(yu)警市(shi)(shi)(shi)場和督察政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)執行制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)。對(dui)(dui)于(yu)下(xia)放(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)事項，應(ying)(ying)(ying)實(shi)施“飛檢”和督導。落實(shi)主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)責任(ren)(ren)：明(ming)確(que)管(guan)(guan)放(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)責任(ren)(ren)劃(hua)分，對(dui)(dui)于(yu)超(chao)出(chu)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)區(qu)間(jian)或紅(hong)(hong)線(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)、對(dui)(dui)于(yu)違反決(jue)(jue)策(ce)規則的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)，自(zi)動(dong)啟動(dong)約談和問責機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。四是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)抓住(zhu)關鍵指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)，建立指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)掛(gua)鉤的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)動(dong)態(tai)機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。將人口(kou)等相關指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)納入(ru)上述(shu)(shu)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)測(ce)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)體(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)，將人口(kou)流(liu)入(ru)規模、土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)供應(ying)(ying)(ying)額度(du)(du)、資金(jin)(jin)(jin)控(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)額度(du)(du)相掛(gua)鉤，將商品住(zhu)房(fang)(fang)價(jia)格(ge)、庫存比(bi)例(li)、空置率、人均面積、房(fang)(fang)存銷比(bi)與(yu)土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、資金(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)供應(ying)(ying)(ying)掛(gua)鉤，并根據不(bu)(bu)同(tong)住(zhu)房(fang)(fang)指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)表(biao)現而不(bu)(bu)同(tong)程度(du)(du)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)增減土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)和資金(jin)(jin)(jin)及基(ji)礎設(she)施和公共(gong)服務。五是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)將房(fang)(fang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)產調(diao)控(kong)納入(ru)應(ying)(ying)(ying)急管(guan)(guan)理體(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)并建立自(zi)動(dong)響應(ying)(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)理機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。

　　（作者系中國(guo)社會科學院財經戰略研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)院研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)員、城市與競爭力研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)中心(xin)主任）