“今年一季度,二產對全社會用電增長的貢獻率為46.9%,比2017年同期、全年分別下降28.6和13.1個百分點;三產對全社會用電增長的貢獻率為25.2%,比2017年同期、全年分別提高9和3.4個百分點。”4月24日,在國家能源局舉行(xing)的例行(xing)新聞(wen)發布會(hui)上,國家(jia)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源局發展規劃司(si)(si)司(si)(si)長李福龍(long)在介紹一(yi)季度能(neng)(neng)(neng)源形勢時表示,我國能(neng)(neng)(neng)源結(jie)構低碳轉(zhuan)型持續推進,傳(chuan)統行(xing)業用(yong)(yong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)進一(yi)步放緩,新興產業用(yong)(yong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)較快增(zeng)長。
新舊動能轉換加快
在李(li)福龍看來(lai),二產(chan)(chan)、三產(chan)(chan)對全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增長的貢獻(xian)正在發(fa)生深刻(ke)變(bian)化,新興產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)依然是(shi)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增長的新動力(li)。“一季度(du),產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)轉型升(sheng)級(ji)效果持(chi)續(xu)顯現,生產(chan)(chan)型服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)和生活型服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)保(bao)持(chi)良好發(fa)展態勢。高(gao)端(duan)裝(zhuang)備(bei)制造業(ye)(ye)、電(dian)氣機械與(yu)計算機通信、城市公共交通運輸、信息服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)等(deng)新興產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)合計同(tong)比增長11%,高(gao)于全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增速1.2個(ge)百分點。”他說。
今年(nian)一(yi)(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du),全社(she)會(hui)用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.8%,自2012年(nian)以(yi)來創6年(nian)來的(de)新高(gao)(gao)(gao)。李(li)福龍分(fen)析認(ren)為,一(yi)(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du)用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)快速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)原因(yin)主要有(you)兩個:一(yi)(yi)(yi)是宏觀經(jing)濟開局良好(hao)。一(yi)(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du),全國規模以(yi)上工業增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)值同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.8%,與2017年(nian)同(tong)期持平;制造業PMI(采(cai)購經(jing)理(li)指(zhi)數)連(lian)續(xu)20個月位于50以(yi)上的(de)景氣區間(jian),非(fei)制造業商務活動指(zhi)數連(lian)續(xu)7個月穩定在54%以(yi)上的(de)較高(gao)(gao)(gao)水平。宏觀經(jing)濟穩中向好(hao)、穩中有(you)進,拉動二產用電(dian)(dian)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.7%,增(zeng)(zeng)速比(bi)2017年(nian)四(si)季(ji)度(du)提高(gao)(gao)(gao)2.4個百分(fen)點(dian),對(dui)全社(she)會(hui)用電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)貢(gong)獻(xian)率(lv)達到47%。二是前兩個月低(di)溫(wen)天氣拉高(gao)(gao)(gao)用電(dian)(dian)需求(qiu)。1、2月份全國平均氣溫(wen)比(bi)2017年(nian)同(tong)期分(fen)別低(di)1.4℃和(he)1.9℃,取(qu)暖(nuan)負荷大幅攀升,北(bei)方地區“煤改電(dian)(dian)”力度(du)大,取(qu)暖(nuan)用電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)拉動一(yi)(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du)三產和(he)居民生活用電(dian)(dian)合計同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)16.9%,增(zeng)(zeng)速比(bi)2017年(nian)四(si)季(ji)度(du)提高(gao)(gao)(gao)10.4個百分(fen)點(dian),對(dui)全社(she)會(hui)用電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)貢(gong)獻(xian)率(lv)達到52%。
細分行(xing)業(ye)用電(dian)情(qing)況,李福龍表示,一季度宏觀經濟發展(zhan)、產業(ye)結構(gou)調整呈現(xian)出(chu)新的(de)特點,高質量發展(zhan)的(de)態勢更加(jia)清晰(xi),這主要體現(xian)在以下(xia)幾個方面:
一(yi)是用(yong)電(dian)(dian)結構進一(yi)步(bu)優化。一(yi)季度,二產(chan)(chan)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)比重(zhong)為(wei)(wei)66.7%,比2017年同期(qi)、全(quan)年分(fen)別(bie)下降(jiang)2.4、3.7個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。其(qi)中,四大高耗能(neng)行業合(he)計用(yong)電(dian)(dian)比重(zhong)為(wei)(wei)27.4%,比2017年同期(qi)、全(quan)年分(fen)別(bie)下降(jiang)1.5、1.4個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian);三(san)產(chan)(chan)和居民生活用(yong)電(dian)(dian)比重(zhong)合(he)計為(wei)(wei)32%,比2017年同期(qi)、全(quan)年分(fen)別(bie)提高2.5、4.3個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian),表(biao)明傳統耗能(neng)行業用(yong)電(dian)(dian)需求下降(jiang),服務(wu)業和居民消費升(sheng)級帶來(lai)的用(yong)電(dian)(dian)需求持續增加。
二(er)是用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)新舊動能轉換提速。一季(ji)度,信息傳輸、軟件服務、汽車制(zhi)造等(deng)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速均高(gao)(gao)于16%,帶動新興產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)11%,持續35個月高(gao)(gao)于全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速;四大(da)高(gao)(gao)耗(hao)能行(xing)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.8%,連(lian)續13個月低于全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速,表明傳統行(xing)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)力度減弱,新興產(chan)業(ye)(ye)持續引領全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。
三(san)(san)是東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)轉(zhuan)型加(jia)快。一季(ji)度,東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)二(er)產(chan)(chan)、三(san)(san)產(chan)(chan)和(he)居民(min)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電齊頭并進,對本地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電增長的貢(gong)獻(xian)(xian)(xian)率(lv)分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)32%、32%和(he)34%,基本呈“三(san)(san)分(fen)天下(xia)”之(zhi)勢,而(er)西部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)二(er)產(chan)(chan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電貢(gong)獻(xian)(xian)(xian)率(lv)接(jie)近66%,中(zhong)(zhong)部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)二(er)產(chan)(chan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電貢(gong)獻(xian)(xian)(xian)率(lv)為(wei)(wei)42%。全(quan)(quan)國二(er)產(chan)(chan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電增長中(zhong)(zhong),西部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)貢(gong)獻(xian)(xian)(xian)了(le)52%,東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)貢(gong)獻(xian)(xian)(xian)了(le)29%;而(er)東(dong)、西部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)對全(quan)(quan)國三(san)(san)產(chan)(chan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電增長的貢(gong)獻(xian)(xian)(xian)率(lv)與二(er)產(chan)(chan)正好相反(fan),東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)貢(gong)獻(xian)(xian)(xian)了(le)52%,西部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)貢(gong)獻(xian)(xian)(xian)了(le)27%。
值(zhi)得一提的(de)是(shi),能(neng)源(yuan)新業態需要(yao)加快培育。一季(ji)度,新增電動汽(qi)車(che)充(chong)(chong)電設施7.6萬臺(tai),同(tong)比增長(chang)152%,3月底,全國(guo)電動汽(qi)車(che)充(chong)(chong)電設施累計達到52萬臺(tai),同(tong)比增長(chang)123%。
清潔電力引領能源轉型發展
在介紹一(yi)季(ji)度能源(yuan)形勢時,李福龍表示(shi)清(qing)潔(jie)電(dian)力正在引(yin)領能源(yuan)行(xing)業轉型發(fa)展(zhan)。他(ta)說:“一(yi)季(ji)度,水、核、風、光等清(qing)潔(jie)發(fa)電(dian)合計投資同(tong)比(bi)增長18%,遠高于全部電(dian)源(yuan)工程投資10.5%的(de)增速,投資比(bi)重為66%,比(bi)2017年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)提(ti)高5.8個百分(fen)點。清(qing)潔(jie)電(dian)力新增裝機比(bi)重達74%,比(bi)2017年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)提(ti)高26個百分(fen)點。”
無獨(du)有(you)偶,一季度我國可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)發展情(qing)況(kuang)同樣令人振奮。國家能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)局新能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)司副司長(chang)李(li)創(chuang)軍在(zai)介紹一季度可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)并網(wang)運行情(qing)況(kuang)時說(shuo):“2018年一季度以來,在(zai)2017年可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)并網(wang)運行有(you)較大改善(shan)的(de)基礎(chu)上,能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)局協調相(xiang)關(guan)企業(ye),積極采取措施,使棄(qi)水、棄(qi)風、棄(qi)光率進一步下(xia)降,與2017年同期相(xiang)比,均出現(xian)較大幅度的(de)降低。”
一方面,可再生能源裝機規模持續擴大。截至一季度末,我國可再生能源發電裝機達到6.66億千瓦,一季度新增1535萬千瓦;其中,水電裝機3.42億千瓦、風電裝機1.68億千瓦、光伏發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)1.4億千(qian)瓦(wa)、生(sheng)物質發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)1575萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa),一季(ji)度新增分別(bie)為77萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)、394萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)、965萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)和(he)99萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)。可(ke)再生(sheng)能源發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)約占全部(bu)電(dian)力裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)的36.9%,比2017年末(mo)提高了0.3個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian),可(ke)再生(sheng)能源占比進一步提高。
另一(yi)(yi)方面,可再生能源(yuan)利用水平顯著(zhu)提高。一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度,國家(jia)發(fa)(fa)展改革委、國家(jia)能源(yuan)局專門組織召開(kai)清潔能源(yuan)消納會(hui)議,研(yan)究提高清潔能源(yuan)消納問題。一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度,可再生能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)達3442億(yi)(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi),同比增長14%;可再生能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)占全部發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)的22%,同比上升1.4個百分點。一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度,全國基本無棄水;棄風(feng)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)91億(yi)(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi),棄風(feng)率(lv)8.5%,同比下(xia)降8個百分點;棄光(guang)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)16.2億(yi)(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi),棄光(guang)率(lv)4.3%,同比下(xia)降5.4個百分點。
李創軍(jun)在介紹風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)并網運(yun)行情(qing)況時(shi)表示,一季度(du)(du),全(quan)國(guo)(guo)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)新(xin)增裝(zhuang)機394萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa),繼續保(bao)持平(ping)穩增長(chang)(chang)勢(shi)頭,中(zhong)東部和(he)南方(fang)地(di)區占比(bi)超過50%,風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)開發(fa)布(bu)局持續優化,新(xin)增裝(zhuang)機較大的省(sheng)份是青海、河南、寧夏和(he)江西,分別為75萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)、54.6萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)、34.76萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)和(he)30.8萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)。一季度(du)(du)末,全(quan)國(guo)(guo)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)累(lei)計裝(zhuang)機1.68億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa),其(qi)中(zhong)中(zhong)東部和(he)南方(fang)地(di)區占26.2%,“三北”地(di)區占73.8%。同(tong)(tong)時(shi),一季度(du)(du)光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)市場整體發(fa)展形勢(shi)向好,呈現所謂“雙升”:一是裝(zhuang)機增長(chang)(chang),光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)新(xin)增裝(zhuang)機965萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)(chang)22%;二是發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量增長(chang)(chang),光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量351億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)(chang)64%;
對于人(ren)們關心的“棄(qi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)”“棄(qi)光”問題(ti),李創(chuang)軍作(zuo)了詳細介紹,他說:“一季(ji)度,全國風(feng)(feng)(feng)電發(fa)電量(liang)979億千(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi),同比(bi)增(zeng)長39.4%;全國風(feng)(feng)(feng)電平均(jun)(jun)利用小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數(shu)592小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi),同比(bi)大(da)幅增(zeng)加124小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi);平均(jun)(jun)利用小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數(shu)較高(gao)的地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)為(wei)華(hua)(hua)南地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)703小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi),華(hua)(hua)東地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)701小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi),其中云南904小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)、福建809小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)、四川765小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。一季(ji)度,棄(qi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)率(lv)進(jin)一步(bu)降低。大(da)部分棄(qi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)限電嚴重地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)的形勢(shi)均(jun)(jun)有(you)所好轉(zhuan),其中吉林(lin)棄(qi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)率(lv)下降35.5個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分點,黑(hei)龍江棄(qi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)率(lv)下降27.8個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分點,山西、遼寧(ning)、蒙東、甘肅、新疆(jiang)、天津棄(qi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)率(lv)下降超過(guo)10個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分點,全國18個(ge)(ge)省份棄(qi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)率(lv)同比(bi)下降。”
對于“棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光(guang)”,李創軍則用(yong)了“雙降”一(yi)詞(ci)來描述:一(yi)是棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光(guang)電量(liang)下降,棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光(guang)電量(liang)16.2億(yi)千(qian)瓦時,同(tong)比下降30%;二是棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光(guang)率(lv)下降,棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光(guang)率(lv)4.3%,同(tong)比下降5.4個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)。“棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光(guang)主要集中(zhong)在新疆(jiang)和(he)甘肅(su),其中(zhong),新疆(jiang)(不含兵團(tuan))棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光(guang)電量(liang)6.16億(yi)千(qian)瓦時,棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光(guang)率(lv)21%,同(tong)比下降18.6個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian);甘肅(su)棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光(guang)電量(liang)2.45億(yi)千(qian)瓦時,棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光(guang)率(lv)10%,同(tong)比下降8.8個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)。”他(ta)說。
光伏發展要從各地實際出發
近年(nian)來,通過全行業的共同(tong)努力(li),我(wo)國光(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)取得了舉世矚目(mu)的成(cheng)就(jiu)。據李(li)創(chuang)軍介紹,我(wo)國光(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)新增(zeng)裝機(ji)連續5年(nian)全球(qiu)第(di)一,累(lei)計裝機(ji)規模(mo)已連續3年(nian)位居(ju)全球(qiu)第(di)一。目(mu)前,我(wo)國光(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的重點已經從(cong)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)規模(mo)轉到提(ti)(ti)質增(zeng)效(xiao)、推(tui)(tui)進技(ji)術進步上來,李(li)創(chuang)軍表示(shi),要把更多的精力(li)放到推(tui)(tui)進技(ji)術進步、降低發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本、減少補(bu)貼(tie)依賴(lai)上,從(cong)嚴控(kong)制發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)規模(mo),提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)光(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)運行質量(liang),推(tui)(tui)動行業有序發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)、高(gao)(gao)質量(liang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。
據悉,今年(nian)光伏(fu)發(fa)電建(jian)設將(jiang)繼續組(zu)織(zhi)好領(ling)跑(pao)(pao)基(ji)(ji)(ji)地(di)建(jian)設。2017年(nian)國(guo)(guo)家能(neng)源(yuan)局組(zu)織(zhi)開(kai)展了第三批光伏(fu)領(ling)跑(pao)(pao)基(ji)(ji)(ji)地(di)建(jian)設,共安排10個應(ying)用領(ling)跑(pao)(pao)基(ji)(ji)(ji)地(di)、3個技術(shu)領(ling)跑(pao)(pao)基(ji)(ji)(ji)地(di),總計(ji)650萬千(qian)瓦。目前,10個應(ying)用領(ling)跑(pao)(pao)基(ji)(ji)(ji)地(di)企業(ye)優選(xuan)工作已經接近尾聲,3個技術(shu)領(ling)跑(pao)(pao)基(ji)(ji)(ji)地(di)企業(ye)優選(xuan)工作已經全面啟動。按計(ji)劃2018年(nian)預計(ji)投產(chan)500萬千(qian)瓦。下半年(nian)國(guo)(guo)家能(neng)源(yuan)局將(jiang)適時啟動新(xin)一(yi)期光伏(fu)應(ying)用領(ling)跑(pao)(pao)基(ji)(ji)(ji)地(di)建(jian)設。
近(jin)年(nian)來分布式光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展迅速(su),已經成為(wei)光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展的一支重要(yao)(yao)力量,2018年(nian)擬安排1000萬千瓦規模用于分布式光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)建設(she)。李創(chuang)軍強(qiang)調要(yao)(yao)推進(jin)分布式光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)健(jian)(jian)康(kang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展,他(ta)說:“各(ge)地光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展一定要(yao)(yao)從當地實(shi)(shi)際出發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa),嚴格執行國(guo)家(jia)相關政策要(yao)(yao)求,不得(de)自行擴大(da)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)國(guo)家(jia)補貼的建設(she)規模,對于擅自擴大(da)規模和未(wei)批先(xian)建、先(xian)建先(xian)得(de)的項目,不納入國(guo)家(jia)補貼范圍(wei)。為(wei)更好推動光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)產業技術(shu)進(jin)步(bu)(bu),實(shi)(shi)現行業健(jian)(jian)康(kang)有序發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展,國(guo)家(jia)能源(yuan)局還(huan)將會同國(guo)家(jia)價格主管部門進(jin)一步(bu)(bu)完(wan)善光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電電價機制(zhi),進(jin)一步(bu)(bu)加快光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電電價退坡(po)速(su)度,進(jin)一步(bu)(bu)降低光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電補貼依(yi)賴。”


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