上半年環氧樹脂市(shi)場呈現疲(pi)軟下行趨勢，成(cheng)本端支撐走弱(ruo)(ruo)以及供強需弱(ruo)(ruo)的(de)(de)基本面共同施壓市(shi)場。下半(ban)年，在(zai)傳(chuan)統消費(fei)旺季“金九銀十”的(de)(de)預期下，需求方可(ke)能會有階段(duan)性(xing)增長(chang)。但考(kao)慮到下半(ban)年環(huan)(huan)氧樹脂市(shi)場供應可(ke)能繼續增長(chang)，需求方增長(chang)有限，預計下半(ban)年環(huan)(huan)氧樹脂市(shi)場低(di)位區間波動或階段(duan)性(xing)上漲(zhang)，但價(jia)格(ge)上漲(zhang)空間有限。

       由于上(shang)半年(nian)國內(nei)經濟活力復蘇緩慢，環(huan)(huan)氧(yang)樹脂(zhi)下(xia)游和終端需求低于預(yu)期。由于國內(nei)新增設備產能釋放和原材料(liao)成(cheng)本(ben)支撐疲軟，環(huan)(huan)氧(yang)樹脂(zhi)價(jia)格在2月份進入下(xia)行通道(dao)，超出(chu)預(yu)期下(xia)跌。2023年(nian)1-6月，華東環(huan)(huan)氧(yang)樹脂(zhi)E-51(承(cheng)兌價(jia)格、交付(fu)價(jia)格、含稅、桶裝、汽(qi)車運(yun)輸、下(xia)同)均價(jia)為14840.24元/噸，較去年(nian)同期下(xia)降43.99%(見圖1)。6月30日國內(nei)環(huan)(huan)氧(yang)樹脂(zhi)E-51收于13250元/噸，該價(jia)格較年(nian)初下(xia)跌了13.5%（見圖2）。

       環氧樹脂雙原料成本支撐不足

       上半(ban)年(nian)國內(nei)(nei)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)酚(fen)(fen)A商談(tan)重(zhong)心震蕩下降。與(yu)去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)相比(bi)，華東地區(qu)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)酚(fen)(fen)A市(shi)場均價(jia)(jia)(jia)為(wei)9633.33元/噸，下降7085.11元/噸，下降42.38%。在此(ci)(ci)期(qi)(qi)間(jian)，最(zui)高談(tan)判為(wei)1月(yue)底10300元/噸，最(zui)低談(tan)判為(wei)6月(yue)中(zhong)旬8700元/噸，價(jia)(jia)(jia)格幅度為(wei)18.39%。上半(ban)年(nian)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)酚(fen)(fen)A價(jia)(jia)(jia)格下行壓力主(zhu)要(yao)來自供(gong)需方(fang)面和成(cheng)(cheng)本方(fang)面，其(qi)中(zhong)供(gong)需格局的變化(hua)對(dui)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格的影(ying)響更為(wei)明顯(xian)。2023年(nian)上半(ban)年(nian)，國內(nei)(nei)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)酚(fen)(fen)A產(chan)能增(zeng)長44萬(wan)噸，國內(nei)(nei)產(chan)量同(tong)(tong)比(bi)大(da)(da)幅增(zeng)長。盡管雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)酚(fen)(fen)A消費同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長，但終端產(chan)業發展表現(xian)出(chu)強烈的預期(qi)(qi)弱(ruo)勢現(xian)實，但增(zeng)速不如供(gong)應方(fang)，市(shi)場供(gong)需壓力增(zeng)大(da)(da)。與(yu)此(ci)(ci)同(tong)(tong)時(shi)，原料苯酚(fen)(fen)丙(bing)酮(tong)也同(tong)(tong)步下降，疊加宏(hong)觀經(jing)濟風險情緒升溫，市(shi)場信心普遍(bian)偏(pian)弱(ruo)，許多因素對(dui)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)酚(fen)(fen)A價(jia)(jia)(jia)格造成(cheng)(cheng)負(fu)面影(ying)響。上半(ban)年(nian)，雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)酚(fen)(fen)a市(shi)場也出(chu)現(xian)了階段性反彈。主(zhu)要(yao)原因是產(chan)品利潤大(da)(da)幅縮(suo)水(shui)，設備(bei)毛利損失明顯(xian)。部分雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)酚(fen)(fen)a設備(bei)下調(diao)開工(gong)，下游工(gong)廠集中(zhong)補倉，支撐(cheng)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格上漲(zhang)。

       上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)年(nian)國內環(huan)氧氯(lv)丙(bing)烷(wan)(wan)市(shi)場(chang)疲(pi)軟波(bo)動，4月(yue)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)旬進(jin)入下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)行通道。環(huan)氧氯(lv)丙(bing)烷(wan)(wan)價(jia)格(ge)從年(nian)初(chu)到(dao)4月(yue)中(zhong)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)旬波(bo)動。1月(yue)份價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)是(shi)因(yin)為下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游環(huan)氧樹脂(zhi)節前(qian)(qian)訂單(dan)(dan)有(you)所(suo)改善(shan)，提高(gao)了原材料(liao)環(huan)氧氯(lv)丙(bing)烷(wan)(wan)的(de)(de)采購(gou)熱情。工廠交付更多(duo)合同(tong)和(he)前(qian)(qian)期(qi)訂單(dan)(dan)，市(shi)場(chang)現貨(huo)緊張(zhang)，導致價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)。二月(yue)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)是(shi)終端(duan)和(he)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游需(xu)求低(di)迷，工廠出(chu)貨(huo)受(shou)阻，庫(ku)存壓(ya)力大，報盤窄幅(fu)(fu)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)。3月(yue)份，下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游環(huan)氧樹脂(zhi)訂單(dan)(dan)不暢，樹脂(zhi)倉(cang)位高(gao)，需(xu)求難以大幅(fu)(fu)度改善(shan)，市(shi)場(chang)價(jia)格(ge)波(bo)動較(jiao)低(di)，部分(fen)環(huan)氯(lv)工廠在成本(ben)和(he)庫(ku)存壓(ya)力下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)減負停(ting)車。4月(yue)中(zhong)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)，在場(chang)內部分(fen)工廠停(ting)車的(de)(de)影響下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)，部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)現貨(huo)供應緊張(zhang)，市(shi)場(chang)新(xin)單(dan)(dan)報價(jia)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)，實單(dan)(dan)談判上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)。4月(yue)底(di)(di)至6月(yue)中(zhong)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)，多(duo)工藝毛(mao)利(li)分(fen)化逐漸(jian)明顯，再加(jia)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游買氣偏弱，市(shi)場(chang)實單(dan)(dan)談判后走低(di)。臨近6月(yue)底(di)(di)，丙(bing)烯法成本(ben)壓(ya)力較(jiao)高(gao)，市(shi)場(chang)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)持貨(huo)商的(de)(de)情緒(xu)逐漸(jian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升。一些下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游只是(shi)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)跟(gen)進(jin)，市(shi)場(chang)交易(yi)氛圍(wei)短暫升溫，實際訂單(dan)(dan)價(jia)格(ge)窄幅(fu)(fu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)。2023年(nian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)年(nian)華東(dong)市(shi)場(chang)環(huan)氧氯(lv)丙(bing)烷(wan)(wan)均(jun)價(jia)約8485.77元/噸(dun)，較(jiao)去年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降9881.03元/噸(dun)，下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降53.80%。

       國內環氧樹脂市場供需錯配加劇

       供(gong)(gong)(gong)應面：上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，東(dong)(dong)方飛源(yuan)、東(dong)(dong)營赫邦等(deng)21萬噸左右(you)(you)的(de)新(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)被釋放，而(er)下(xia)(xia)游需求(qiu)側(ce)(ce)增(zeng)速小于供(gong)(gong)(gong)給側(ce)(ce)，市場(chang)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需錯配加劇。上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)環(huan)氧(yang)樹脂(zhi)E-51產(chan)(chan)業平均開工負荷在(zai)56%左右(you)(you)，較(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)下(xia)(xia)降3個百分點。6月底，市場(chang)整體開工減少到(dao)47%左右(you)(you)；1-6月，環(huan)氧(yang)樹脂(zhi)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)約為(wei)(wei)72.71萬噸，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長7.43%。此外(wai)，1-6月份環(huan)氧(yang)樹脂(zhi)進口約7.86萬噸，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)減少了40.14%，主要原因是環(huan)氧(yang)樹脂(zhi)國內供(gong)(gong)(gong)給充足，進口量(liang)較(jiao)少。總供(gong)(gong)(gong)應量(liang)達到(dao)了2520萬噸，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)增(zeng)長了7.7%。；下(xia)(xia)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)預(yu)計(ji)為(wei)(wei)33.5萬噸。盡管受利潤(run)水平、供(gong)(gong)(gong)需壓力和價格下(xia)(xia)跌的(de)影響，一些(xie)設備可(ke)能(neng)會推遲生產(chan)(chan)，但環(huan)氧(yang)樹脂(zhi)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)進一步加快與上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)相(xiang)比的(de)能(neng)源(yuan)擴(kuo)張步伐是不(bu)爭的(de)事實，市場(chang)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應能(neng)力可(ke)能(neng)會繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)增(zeng)加。從需求(qiu)方面來看，終端消費水平恢復(fu)緩慢。預(yu)計(ji)下(xia)(xia)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)出臺(tai)新(xin)(xin)的(de)刺激消費政(zheng)(zheng)策。隨(sui)著(zhu)一批促進經(jing)濟持(chi)續(xu)(xu)好轉的(de)政(zheng)(zheng)策措施相(xiang)繼(ji)出臺(tai)，經(jing)濟內生動能(neng)量(liang)的(de)自(zi)發修復(fu)將(jiang)疊加，我國經(jing)濟有望繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)邊際改善，有望推動環(huan)氧(yang)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)的(de)需求(qiu)。

       需求面：防疫政策優化后，國內經濟于(yu)2022年(nian)(nian)11月正式進入修復渠道。但疫情過后，經濟修復仍以“場景(jing)式”恢復為主，旅游、餐飲等行業率先復蘇，勢頭強(qiang)勁，對工業產品的需求驅動效果低于(yu)預期(qi)。環氧(yang)(yang)樹(shu)脂也是如此，終端(duan)需求低于(yu)預期(qi)。下(xia)游涂料、電(dian)子和(he)風電(dian)行業恢復緩慢，整體需求側疲軟。上半年(nian)(nian)環氧(yang)(yang)樹(shu)脂的表觀消(xiao)費(fei)量(liang)約為72.62萬(wan)噸，較(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)下(xia)降了2.77%。隨(sui)著供需的增加(jia)和(he)減少，環氧(yang)(yang)樹(shu)脂的供需錯配(pei)進一(yi)步加(jia)劇，環氧(yang)(yang)樹(shu)脂的下(xia)降。

       環氧樹脂季節特性明顯，9-10月上漲概率較高

       環(huan)(huan)(huan)氧(yang)樹(shu)脂(zhi)價(jia)格波(bo)動具有一定的季節性(xing)(xing)特(te)征，具體表現為前(qian)(qian)九個月(yue)市場波(bo)動后窄幅(fu)上漲，其中1-2月(yue)下游春節前(qian)(qian)備貨需求集中釋放支撐(cheng)樹(shu)脂(zhi)價(jia)格；9-10月(yue)進入“金九銀十”傳統消(xiao)費旺(wang)季，價(jia)格上漲概(gai)(gai)率較(jiao)高；3-5月(yue)和11-12月(yue)逐漸進入消(xiao)費淡季，環(huan)(huan)(huan)氧(yang)樹(shu)脂(zhi)下游消(xiao)化前(qian)(qian)期庫存原料較(jiao)多，市場價(jia)格下跌概(gai)(gai)率較(jiao)高。預計今(jin)年下半年環(huan)(huan)(huan)氧(yang)樹(shu)脂(zhi)市場將繼續上述季節性(xing)(xing)波(bo)動規律，結合能(neng)源市場價(jia)格的變化和國內經濟修復(fu)進程。

       預計下半年的(de)高點大概(gai)率(lv)出現(xian)在9、10月(yue)份，低點或出現(xian)在12月(yue)份。半年環氧樹脂(zhi)市場(chang)低位(wei)區間(jian)波動，主流價(jia)格(ge)運行區間(jian)可能在13500-14500元/噸。