2月8日，中國工業經(jing)濟(ji)聯(lian)合(he)(he)(he)會(hui)(hui)(hui)、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)報社聯(lian)合(he)(he)(he)舉辦(ban)的工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)經(jing)濟(ji)運(yun)(yun)行(xing)形勢分析座談會(hui)(hui)(hui)在北京(jing)召開。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)經(jing)濟(ji)聯(lian)合(he)(he)(he)會(hui)(hui)(hui)執行(xing)副會(hui)(hui)(hui)長郜志宇(yu)、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)物流與(yu)采購(gou)聯(lian)合(he)(he)(he)會(hui)(hui)(hui)總經(jing)濟(ji)師何輝、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)鋼鐵工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)協(xie)會(hui)(hui)(hui)產業(ye)(ye)運(yun)(yun)行(xing)部(bu)主(zhu)(zhu)任刁力、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)石油和化學工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)聯(lian)合(he)(he)(he)會(hui)(hui)(hui)信(xin)(xin)息(xi)與(yu)市(shi)場部(bu)副主(zhu)(zhu)任劉(liu)國(guo)(guo)林、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)建(jian)筑材料聯(lian)合(he)(he)(he)會(hui)(hui)(hui)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作部(bu)副主(zhu)(zhu)任曹會(hui)(hui)(hui)保、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)輕工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)信(xin)(xin)息(xi)中(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)經(jing)濟(ji)運(yun)(yun)行(xing)處(chu)處(chu)長張涌濤、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)煤炭(tan)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)協(xie)會(hui)(hui)(hui)政策研(yan)究(jiu)部(bu)處(chu)長張磊、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)力企(qi)業(ye)(ye)聯(lian)合(he)(he)(he)會(hui)(hui)(hui)統(tong)計(ji)與(yu)數據中(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)分析處(chu)處(chu)長吳立強、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)機械(xie)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)聯(lian)合(he)(he)(he)會(hui)(hui)(hui)統(tong)計(ji)與(yu)信(xin)(xin)息(xi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作部(bu)副處(chu)長萬(wan)道濮、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)有色金屬工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)協(xie)會(hui)(hui)(hui)信(xin)(xin)息(xi)統(tong)計(ji)部(bu)副處(chu)長張念分別作了(le)發言和討論。座談會(hui)(hui)(hui)由中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)報社社長兼(jian)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)經(jing)濟(ji)聯(lian)合(he)(he)(he)會(hui)(hui)(hui)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)經(jing)濟(ji)研(yan)究(jiu)中(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)主(zhu)(zhu)任徐金寶主(zhu)(zhu)持。

　　市場需求收縮壓力明(ming)顯加(jia)大

　　2022年，我國(guo)經濟整(zheng)體運行(xing)明(ming)顯低于年初(chu)預期。從國(guo)際看(kan)，受地緣政治、能源危(wei)機、通(tong)貨膨脹等影響(xiang)，大(da)宗(zong)商品(pin)價格(ge)持(chi)續高位(wei)，原(yuan)材(cai)料成本上升，市(shi)場需求收(shou)縮壓力明(ming)顯加(jia)大(da)。從國(guo)內(nei)看(kan)，各個行(xing)業產(chan)業鏈、供(gong)應鏈同步收(shou)縮，供(gong)需兩方面收(shou)縮比較明(ming)顯，中小(xiao)企業受影響(xiang)較大(da)。面對上述情況，我國(guo)相(xiang)繼出臺了(le)穩(wen)(wen)增長(chang)、穩(wen)(wen)就業、穩(wen)(wen)經濟措(cuo)施，市(shi)場總體平穩(wen)(wen)，雖然出現局(ju)部、階段性、短時間(jian)供(gong)需缺陷問題，但是對工業增長(chang)、原(yuan)料供(gong)應、材(cai)料銷售(shou)、確(que)保產(chan)業鏈正常運轉(zhuan)，起到了(le)一定的保障作用。

　　盡(jin)管如此，2022年(nian)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)濟復(fu)蘇(su)進程中的(de)波(bo)動性(xing)明顯加大，各行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)都比較(jiao)困(kun)(kun)難(nan)。一是(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)鋼(gang)鐵行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)下游(you)需求(qiu)(qiu)不(bu)及預期(qi)(qi)、能(neng)源價(jia)格高(gao)企、鋼(gang)材(cai)(cai)價(jia)格下跌，行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)經(jing)濟效益(yi)下滑;二是(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)輕(qing)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)經(jing)濟恢復(fu)呈(cheng)現(xian)(xian)放緩態(tai)勢，內外需都在下滑，部(bu)分輕(qing)工行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)加值、消費、出口全年(nian)負增(zeng)長(chang);三是(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)電力消費呈(cheng)現(xian)(xian)“兩(liang)高(gao)兩(liang)低”的(de)特點，行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)運行(xing)(xing)(xing)壓力大;四是(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)機械行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)總體(ti)上呈(cheng)現(xian)(xian)“兩(liang)起兩(liang)落(luo)”的(de)趨(qu)勢，主要經(jing)濟指標總體(ti)上未達到(dao)(dao)全年(nian)預期(qi)(qi);五是(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)有色金屬行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)面臨需求(qiu)(qiu)收(shou)縮、供給(gei)沖擊、預期(qi)(qi)減弱(ruo)的(de)趨(qu)勢;六(liu)是(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)石化行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)效益(yi)增(zeng)長(chang)高(gao)位(wei)回落(luo)，內部(bu)分化明顯;七是(shi)2022年(nian)是(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)建材(cai)(cai)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)運行(xing)(xing)(xing)最艱難(nan)的(de)一年(nian)，大企業(ye)(ye)(ye)虧損(sun)嚴(yan)重(zhong);八是(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)物(wu)流服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)保通保暢遇到(dao)(dao)的(de)問題比較(jiao)多，行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)比較(jiao)困(kun)(kun)難(nan)。

　　總體而言，各行業市場需求(qiu)不足問題突(tu)出。2022年，我(wo)國鋼(gang)(gang)鐵需求(qiu)下滑，粗鋼(gang)(gang)表(biao)觀消費量9.60億噸(dun)，同比下降3.4%;油氣和化工下游需求(qiu)低迷;房(fang)地產開(kai)發投資(zi)以(yi)及房(fang)屋施工、竣(jun)工面積持續下降，對建材行業拉(la)動作用明顯減弱，市場需求(qiu)不及預期。

　　各行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)經濟效(xiao)益持續下(xia)滑。2022年(nian)，我國電煤(mei)價格居高(gao)不下(xia)導致煤(mei)電企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)經營壓力增(zeng)加，虧損面(mian)持續在50%以(yi)(yi)上;鋼鐵行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)效(xiao)益明顯下(xia)滑，中國鋼鐵工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)協會(hui)會(hui)員(yuan)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)營業(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)6.35%，利潤(run)總額(e)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)72.27%;規(gui)模以(yi)(yi)上煤(mei)炭企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)應用收(shou)入同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)19.5%，但行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)利潤(run)增(zeng)速出(chu)現回落;我國規(gui)模以(yi)(yi)上建材行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)營業(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)4.2%，利潤(run)總額(e)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)20.4%。

　　各行業均(jun)保持謹慎樂觀態度

　　2023年，不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)管(guan)從(cong)國際形勢還是(shi)從(cong)國內形勢來(lai)看，不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)性因素比較多，壓(ya)力(li)較大，全球增長預不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)高(gao)，我國各個行(xing)業均保持謹慎樂觀(guan)的(de)(de)(de)態度。目前(qian)來(lai)看，美(mei)國對我國全方位打(da)壓(ya)，受沖(chong)擊最(zui)大的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)工業行(xing)業，特(te)別是(shi)高(gao)端(duan)制造(zao)業;新(xin)冠肺炎疫(yi)情(qing)(qing)和自然災(zai)害影響(xiang)，具(ju)有(you)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)性;疫(yi)情(qing)(qing)防(fang)控放開(kai)后(hou)，新(xin)動能、新(xin)需求釋放的(de)(de)(de)程度、時(shi)(shi)間(jian)(jian)、動力(li)存(cun)在不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)性;整個社會(hui)市場包(bao)括企業家預期的(de)(de)(de)恢復時(shi)(shi)間(jian)(jian)長，存(cun)在較大的(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)性。從(cong)工業的(de)(de)(de)角度分析，我國產業有(you)空間(jian)(jian)、有(you)缺口(kou)，但是(shi)“高(gao)精尖”不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)是(shi)短時(shi)(shi)間(jian)(jian)內就能實現，需要有(you)一(yi)個很長時(shi)(shi)間(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)(de)創新(xin)過程。

　　不(bu)過，隨(sui)著各項穩增長政策措施(shi)落地見效，2023年(nian)我(wo)國經濟(ji)將(jiang)重回正常增長軌道，疫(yi)情(qing)防控放開，剛性需求進一(yi)步釋(shi)放，對經濟(ji)恢(hui)復帶來空間。

　　專家一(yi)致(zhi)認為，2023年我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)工(gong)業(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)速將好于2022年。一(yi)是(shi)(shi)經(jing)濟回(hui)升將對(dui)制造(zao)業(ye)鋼材需(xu)(xu)求起到支撐作(zuo)用，如果房(fang)地(di)產(chan)改善不(bu)及預期(qi)，鋼材需(xu)(xu)求或小幅(fu)下滑;二是(shi)(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)輕(qing)工(gong)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)春節后(hou)復工(gong)復產(chan)情(qing)況總(zong)體正(zheng)常(chang)(chang)，但(dan)是(shi)(shi)面臨節日性和(he)結(jie)構性招工(gong)難、成本高(gao)、庫存大、需(xu)(xu)求弱、訂單降等(deng)問(wen)題;三是(shi)(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)力供需(xu)(xu)總(zong)統(tong)平(ping)衡，部(bu)分區域用電(dian)高(gao)峰時段(duan)電(dian)力供需(xu)(xu)偏緊;四是(shi)(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)機械(xie)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)實(shi)現一(yi)定程度的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，但(dan)是(shi)(shi)增(zeng)(zeng)速可能不(bu)會那么高(gao)，初步判斷是(shi)(shi)全年增(zeng)(zeng)速5%左右;五是(shi)(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)有色行(xing)(xing)業(ye)只要(yao)不(bu)出現大規模“黑天鵝”事件，生產(chan)總(zong)體保持平(ping)穩(wen);六(liu)是(shi)(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)石化行(xing)(xing)業(ye)總(zong)統(tong)保持平(ping)穩(wen)探視(shi)，內部(bu)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)結(jie)構有所變(bian)化，上(shang)游(you)油氣超高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)回(hui)落(luo)，下游(you)成品(pin)油和(he)化工(gong)略有好轉(zhuan);七是(shi)(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)工(gong)業(ye)消費(fei)對(dui)建材產(chan)業(ye)的(de)拉(la)動(dong)作(zuo)用將穩(wen)中有升，產(chan)業(ye)結(jie)構調整將增(zeng)(zeng)添行(xing)(xing)業(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)動(dong)力;八是(shi)(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)疫情(qing)防(fang)控放開后(hou)，交通(tong)物流(liu)恢復比較明顯，物流(liu)景氣預期(qi)看好;九是(shi)(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)宏(hong)觀經(jing)濟隨(sui)著穩(wen)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)各項措施的(de)落(luo)地(di)重回(hui)正(zheng)常(chang)(chang)軌道，有利于煤(mei)炭需(xu)(xu)求的(de)回(hui)暖。

　　值得(de)注意(yi)的(de)是，2023年全球高(gao)(gao)通脹將(jiang)(jiang)繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)延續(xu)(xu)大(da)宗商品價(jia)(jia)格(ge)高(gao)(gao)位趨勢，對我(wo)國(guo)經濟產生下行(xing)壓力。如果我(wo)國(guo)煤炭、天(tian)然氣等(deng)建(jian)材等(deng)主要(yao)燃料(liao)以及石(shi)油瀝青、純堿、樹脂、鋼筋(jin)等(deng)原(yuan)料(liao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)持續(xu)(xu)大(da)幅上漲(zhang)，將(jiang)(jiang)使得(de)建(jian)材企業仍將(jiang)(jiang)繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)在(zai)(zai)高(gao)(gao)成(cheng)本區(qu)間(jian)運行(xing)，生產要(yao)素對行(xing)業穩增長壓力加大(da)。同時，全球液化天(tian)然氣供需市場極易出現極端情況，我(wo)國(guo)石(shi)化上游供氣企業資源籌措存(cun)在(zai)(zai)較大(da)風險，下游用戶成(cheng)本存(cun)在(zai)(zai)較大(da)壓力。